李小萌, 李思涵, 史毅, 陈清华. 中国省际人口迁移模式的复杂性探索[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 59(5): 785-795. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023154
引用本文: 李小萌, 李思涵, 史毅, 陈清华. 中国省际人口迁移模式的复杂性探索[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 59(5): 785-795. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023154
LI Xiaomeng, LI Sihan, SHI Yi, CHEN Qinghua. Complexity of inter-provincial migration patterns in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 59(5): 785-795. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023154
Citation: LI Xiaomeng, LI Sihan, SHI Yi, CHEN Qinghua. Complexity of inter-provincial migration patterns in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 59(5): 785-795. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023154

中国省际人口迁移模式的复杂性探索

Complexity of inter-provincial migration patterns in China

  • 摘要: 人口是一个复杂系统,人口的迁移是复杂系统科学长期关注的一个典型问题.基于最近3次人口普查中的中国省际双边迁移数据进行复杂性探索研究.1)展示了中国区域人口迁移模式及演变;2)基于多边概率迁移模型,定量研究中国省际人口迁移的障碍.通过回归,揭示了影响区域流动障碍的基本要素,可以解释60%左右的迁移.其中地理距离、迁入迁出地的发展指数、迁入迁出地的房价等对中国区域迁移的影响较为显著.最后对中国5个热点迁入地北京、上海、广东、浙江、江苏进行了推力和拉力的全面分析,并讨论了其异同点.

     

    Abstract: Population is a complex system, and population migration is a typical issue that has long been a concern of complex systems science. Based on the data of inter-provincial bilateral migration between provinces in China from the last three censuses, a complexity exploration study was conducted. 1) regional population migration patterns and their evolution in China are verified. 2) Based on multilateral probability migration model, a quantitative study is conducted on the barriers to inter-provincial population migration in China. Regression analysis reveals fundamental elements that affect regional mobility barriers, which can explain about 60% of all migrations.The influence of geographical distance, development index of migration destination and origin, housing prices of migration destination and origin on regional migration is found to be significant. Finally, a comprehensive analysis of pushing and pulling forces of five hot migration destinations (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu) is conducted, similarities and differences among these destinations are discussed.

     

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