东北地区资源型城市夜间经济发展活力均衡性及影响因素

Equilibrium and influencing factors of nighttime economic development vitality in resource-based cities in Northeast China

  • 摘要: 夜间经济活力是衡量区域高质量发展的重要标准,对于正处于高质量转型关键期的资源型城市,从夜间经济活力视角探讨其转型质量具有重要实践价值.本文以东北地区(辽宁、吉林和黑龙江三省)共22个资源型城市为研究对象,以15个非资源型城市为对照组,通过平均灯光值测算2000—2022年间资源型城市夜间经济的发展活力,选择灯光基尼系数衡量研究区资源型城市夜间经济发展均衡性,将资源型城市按照其职能分类研究灯光基尼系数变化,运用GM灰色预测模型,预测研究区灯光基尼系数的未来变动情况,同时利用地理探测器分析夜间经济均衡性的驱动因素.研究发现:1)资源型城市平均灯光值显著提升,从2000年的1.48提升至2022年的8.24,但仍落后于非资源型城市;2)资源型城市灯光基尼系数由2000年的0.27下降至2022年的0.24,在2015年后资源型城市的均衡性平均值高于非资源型城市,综合型城市的夜间经济均衡性高于其他职能城市;3)2025—2035年,资源型城市未来夜间经济均衡性持续高于非资源型城市;4)东北地区资源型城市夜间经济的均衡性发展主要受降雨量、经济总量及城市化发展水平的影响.

     

    Abstract: Nighttime economic vitality is an important criterion for measuring the high-quality development of a region. For resource-based cities that are in a critical period of high-quality transformation, exploring their transformation quality from the perspective of nighttime economic vitality has important practical value. This article takes 22 resource-based cities in Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang provinces) as the research object, and the remaining 15 non resource-based cities as the control group. The development vitality of the nighttime economy in resource-based cities from 2000 to 2022 is calculated by the average light value. The Gini coefficient of light is selected to measure the balance of nighttime economic development in resource-based cities in the study area. Resource based cities are classified according to their functions to study the changes in Gini coefficient of light. The GM grey prediction model is used to predict the future changes in Gini coefficient of light in the study area. At the same time, a geographic detector is used to analyze the driving factors of nighttime economic equilibrium. Research has found that: (1) the average light value of resource-based cities has significantly increased, from 1.48 in 2000 to 8.24 in 2022, but still lags behind non resource based cities; (2) The Gini coefficient of lighting in resource-based cities has decreased from 0.27 in 2000 to 0.24 in 2022. After 2015, the average equilibrium of resource-based cities is higher than that of non resource based cities, and the nighttime economic equilibrium of comprehensive cities is higher than that of other functional cities; (3) From 2025 to 2035, the future nighttime economic equilibrium of resource-based cities will continue to be higher than that of non resource based cities; (4) The equilibrium development of nighttime economy in resource-based cities in Northeast China is mainly influenced by rainfall, total economic output, and urbanization level.

     

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