高寒流域水文模拟与径流水源解析以雅鲁藏布江帕隆藏布上游流域为例

Hydrological simulation and runoff components analysis in the high cold alpine region: case study in the upper reaches of the Parlung Zangbo watershed of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin

  • 摘要: 为深入研究高寒流域河川径流的水源解析,选取雅鲁藏布江帕隆藏布上游流域为研究区,采用月流量、遥感积雪面积数据、实测冰川径流数据等多目标率定方法,改进单一依靠流量数据率定模型的方法,基于SPHY(Spatial Processes in Hydrology)水文模型开展水文模拟及径流组分研究,提高了总体建模质量.结果表明:在率定期和验证期Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.95和0.94,模型具有较好的适用性.降雨径流、融雪径流、冰川径流和基流作为径流来源,占总径流的比例分别为10%、25%、45%和20%,冰川径流和融雪径流是最重要的补给来源.月尺度上,冰川径流在7—8月占比最大,融雪径流在4—6月占比最大,降雨径流在各月占比最小.冰川径流占比最高,短期内可提供更多水资源保障社会经济发展,长期而言冰川径流将逐渐减少,造成水资源短缺.因此,当地需提高应对径流变化潜在风险的策略.

     

    Abstract: Runoff components in high cold alpine region were investigated in the Parlung Zangbo basin.The multi-objective calibration methods such as monthly flow, remote sensing snow area data and measured glacier runoff data were used to calibrate model instead of only using streamflow data.Both hydrological simulation and runoff analysis were carried out based on SPHY (Spatial Processes in Hydrology) hydrological model, to improve overall simulation quality.Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency in calibration and validation periods were found to be 0.95 and 0.94, respectively.The model had a good applicability.Rainfall runoff, snow runoff, glacier runoff and base flow were the sources of runoff, accounting for 10%, 25%, 45% and 20% of the total, respectively.Glacier melt water and snow melt water were the most important sources.On a monthly scale, glacier runoff accounted for the largest proportion from July to August, snowmelt runoff accounted for the largest proportion from April to June, and rainfall runoff accounted for the smallest proportion.Glacier runoff accounted for the highest proportion, which could provide more water resources to ensure social and economic development in the short term. In the long term, glacier runoff would gradually decrease, resulting in water shortage.Therefore, the local government needs to improve strategies to deal with potential risks of runoff changes.

     

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